¿Sincronizados para el éxito? Los procesos de negociación entre Corea del Norte y Corea del Sur, así como entre los Estados Unidos de América y Corea del Norte
Eric J. Ballbach – 2019
Following the 2008 breakdown of the Six-Party Talks as the last attempt to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula diplomatically, a rapid escalation in relations between the international community and North Korea could be observed. In this context, most communication channels both at the intra-Korean level and between the United States and North Korea collapsed. With the accession to power by Kim Jong Un in North Korea (2011) and the election of Moon Jae-in in South Korea (2017) and Donald Trump in the United States (2016), a completely new context emerged. After a dramatic escalation of the situation in 2017, in which the mutual provocations and threats between the USA and North Korea escalated further and further, the return of diplomacy in the nuclear conflict in the Korean Peninsula could be observed in 2018. This paper examines the different political and diplomatic dynamics in inter-Korean and US-North Korean relations since the resumption of the respective dialogues in 2017 and 2018. It will be shown that while the intrinsic dynamics in the relations between Seoul and Pyongyang have been strengthened, these intrinsic dynamics are still not strong enough to escape the direct influence of US-North Korean relations. As such, it is of immediate concern to resolve the current stalemate between North Korea and the USA. This requires an agreement on key issues such as the exact definition of the ultimate goal of denuclearization and the sequencing of the future negotiation process. On the other hand, this presupposes sufficient room for flexible and creative diplomacy on the working-level, which in turn requires the corresponding political will on all sides.